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Final Election Round-Up PDF Print E-mail
Culture and Politics - Politics
Written by Douglas Wilson   
Saturday, 03 November 2012 14:23

Here is your final political round-up before the Zombie Apocalypse next Tuesday.

My friend Kevin Swanson makes some important points here, and I will wait for you until you get back. In the midst of that post, he notes the following facts concerning the cancerous growth of the state, under both Republicans and Democrats.


Annualized Growth in Spending:
Reagan -- first term -- 8.7%
Reagan -- second term -- 4.9%
Bush I -- 5.4%
Clinton -- first term -- 3.2%
Clinton -- second term -- 3.9%
Bush 2 -- first term -- 7.3%
Bush 2 -- second term -- 8.1%
Obama -- 1.4%[1]

While I think Kevin makes an important point here, I would like to throw in a significant "yeah, but." When we annualize the growth rates of the federal government, it is important for us to remember who had control of the two chambers of Congress at the time. This doesn't take away from Kevin's main point -- I actually think it strengthens it by giving credit where credit is due, and by allowing us to make a more precise point about a particular kind of Republican. This is relevant because a lot rides on what kind of Republican president Romney turns out to be.

In Reagan's two terms, he had a Democratic Senate the entire eight years. He had a Republican House for the first six, and a Democratic House the last two. Despite the limitations, Reagan managed to cut the growth rates (from his first term to his second) almost in half.

In Bush I's term, he had a Democratic House and Senate the entire four years.
In Clinton's time, he had a Democratic House and Senate the first two years, scared the heck out of everybody, and so we had our first Tea Party movement in 1994, which gave the House and Senate to the Republicans, which they held for the last six years of Clinton's presidency. Because Clinton was a pragmatist (unlike Obama), he allowed the Republicans to hold a fiscal gun to his head, and so they are the ones to be credited with the relatively slow growth of Levithan during those years.

When Bush II came in, he had a Democratic House for the first two years, and a Republican Senate. Republican culpability kicks in with the elections of 2002, and this is where Kevin's point kicks in with a vengeance as well. This gave Republicans full control of Congress for the next four years. Bush lost control of both houses for the last two years of his presidency. But the massive increase in spending during those years can be laid at the Republicans' doorstep, and should be. So what is Romney going to do?

As I have indicated before, I don't believe this is going to be a nailbiter election. I think that political junkies will be able to go to bed at their usual time. But because lots of people are saying it will be another squeaker, it currently seems crazy to many people that I (who would greatly prefer a Romney presidency to another round of trillion dollar drinks from Obama) am not voting for him. In sum, I am not voting for him for three reasons -- he doesn't need my vote here in Idaho, he doesn't need my vote if this turns out to be the landslide I believe it will be, and he does need my opposition (and that of all my fellow teabots) from day one of his presidency. And in order to provide that opposition, I need to be gearing up for it. I am gearing up for it by not voting for the man I believe will win handily.

Not voting for him places me in a better position to say, on day one, that not only did I not want Obamacare, I don't want what Romney is going to replace it with. I don't want my great-grandchildren to have to deal with socialized medicine, and I believe that Romney stands a much better chance of saddling them with that socialized medicine than Obama does.

But what if I am wrong? Well, it wouldn't be the first time, and so there's that to consider. Seriously, we are called to make our best judgment of what we think is going down, act faithfully on that basis, and trust the Lord with the results. I am making no claims of infallibility, but this lack of infallibility is no barrier to casting a vote in good conscience.

And so last, if I am wrong and Obama is reelected, we may still be confident in the Lord. Obama will still be president, but Jesus will still be the King. The yeast of the kingdom is still in the dough, and it cannot be taken out. The earth will still be gradually filling up with the knowledge of God. All hubris and arrogance will still be thrown down. The kings of the earth will still have to kiss the Son lest He be angry with them. I will still preach the gospel the Sunday following Election Day, just as I did the Sunday prior, and the gospel I preach will still be just as true.

 

 



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Taylor  Saturday, November 03, 2012 4:28 pm
Mr. Swanson appears to be citing the now-debunked MarketWatch report that conflated Obama's first year spending with Bush's. If you toodle around the Interwebs, you may find the reports of many commentators and analysts who've dealt a body blow to it. Besides, Obama voted for TARP and the budgets of his Democratic colleagues anyway.

Other than that, a hearty amen. I would only reverse your election prediction. I think Obama wins handily when he likely shouldn't. But if Romney pulls it off, we should be on our guard for the events that'll likely transpire, including questionable Supreme Court appointees and still-larger doses of spending.

That's something to quibble over, though. It shouldn't cause any consternation, given that your final paragraph is wonderfully, gloriously true.
jay niemeyer  Saturday, November 03, 2012 5:10 pm
By the time of the 2008 election year, deficit spending and national debt had finally become extremely important to Americans. Every major candidate had said that the situation was unsustainable - and that doom was thus inevitable.
So, what does Obama do?
Stimulus, O-care, and yet another increase in overall spending.
Does this make him worse than Bush?
Yes.
In fact, every president that adds to the previous hyper spendacious administration's profligacy is fiscally worse than the one before, no?
So, if Romney increases spending by .0001%, he would therefore prove worse than Obama!

(Reagan's debt is somewhat more excusable in light of the existential Soviet threat - and the effectual strategy of defense spending, etc. as a means of exhausting the Commies economic capacities. Once we had won, however, any further increases in spending were inexcusable.)
joel bethyada  - Conversions must be proven in lower offices  Saturday, November 03, 2012 5:34 pm
The best paragraph in that link by far
Quote:
Rhetoric changes so often in political races that I encourage people not to pay any attention to it whatsoever. The only way to know whether a man is principled on any issue is to review his record. If he has supported homosexuality, abortion, big government socialism, or big-government medicine in his previous political involvement, he is not to be trusted with a higher office. Period. Conversions must be proven in lower offices. If this man was converted after his horrendous record in the Massachusetts State Government, then let it be proven in a lower office first. If homosexuality in the public arena is a growing toxin in American life, and if he blasted the Boy Scouts for their opposition to homosexual involvement, then how do we know that he would oppose a Hate Crimes bill that would land Christian pastors in prison in 2018?
Ben Carmack  - A few factual inaccuracies here  Sunday, November 04, 2012 10:30 am
All,

Just a few inaccuracies here to gently correct.

Republicans controlled the Senate during the first 6 years of Reagan's presidency, not the House. Democrats controlled the House for 40 straight years from 1955 to 1995. This is important because according to Article I of the Constitution, all bills having to do with appropriations must originate in the House.

Republicans controlled the U.S. House from 1995 to 2007, including the first two years of the Bush 43 administration, though narrowly, meaning that Bush 43 enjoyed 6 years of a Republican House, during which he made fiscal matters worse. That's also important.
Douglas Wilson  Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:29 pm
Ben, thanks for the corrections. I was going off something I read on the Web (http://www.dflorig.com/partycontrol.htm), so I don't know what could have gone wrong.
John Quill  Sunday, November 04, 2012 2:38 pm
Spending is important and not to be ignored, but more indicative measures to me are debt and the debt/GDP ratio.

After making a few norming assumptions (eg, the president inherits a budget from Jan to Sep of his inaugural year), I think the respective data for annualized compounded debt growth and ending debt/GDP ratios are ...
Nixon/Ford, 8.7%, 35.4%
Carter, 9.4%, 32.9%
Reagan, 13.6%, 52.1%
Bush 1, 11.5%, 66.2%
Clinton, 3.5%, 56.5%
Bush 2, 9.4%, 85.4%
Obama, 10.4%, 103.7%

Our debt/GDP ratio is far worse than Spain or France, and we are in striking distance of Ireland, Portugal, and Italy.

We have some similarities to Rome in the AD 200s, 300s, and 400s. (A huge difference is today's speed of information transfer.) Although Mr Gibbons wrote an interesting book on the subject of Rome's fall, some interesting articles online are ...
http://mises.org/daily/3663
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18159752
http://www.rome.info/history/empire/fall/
jay niemeyer  Monday, November 05, 2012 12:15 pm
Al, This is very useful and concise. I hope you do not mind that I post it on FB.
:wink:
Thanks!
Jonathan  Monday, November 05, 2012 5:28 pm
Al - Debt growth and debt/GDP ratios are obviously heavily influenced by the state of the economy when the president takes over. There could be arguments about some previous presidents, but there's really no denying that Obama took over an economy that was in a far worse state than anyone else on that list, and that the state of the global economy made the idea of a rip-roaring US economy in 2009-2012 a real pipe dream (virtually impossible the first two of those years, unlikely the second two). That makes putting those numbers side-by-side a silly exercise. You might make the argument that Obama should have helped the economy a little more, or that he should have spent less (though budget balancing wouldn't have been remotely possible), but you really can't argue that his debt/GDP ratio could be remotely comparable to those other presidents considering the massive revenue and GDP drop he entered office with.
Matt Weber  Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:05 pm
Quote:
As I have indicated before, I don't believe this is going to be a nailbiter election.


Of course not. If Obama wins Ohio, which by all evidence other than Republican hopes and dreams (mine included, TBH) he will, the election is over.

For fun though, let's take this stuff about a Romney landslide seriously. What sort of EC breakdown will it be? What evidence of any kind is there that this will happen? In best case, that Romney wins all the swing states, he gets 337 in the EC. A handy win, but not a landslide by any reasonable definition. And who honestly expects him to get all of the swing states? What evidence is there that this is even a possibility?

It's things like this that make people suspect you have no idea what you're talking about.

Quote:
Reagan's debt is somewhat more excusable in light of the existential Soviet threat


What!? In the 80's!? Dude, by the 80's the verdict was in and the Soviets were hanging on by the skin of their teeth. By that point they had completely given up on trying to compete and focused on looting as much as possible before the end. The Warsaw Pact wasn't making it past 1990 no matter what Reagan did. The vast military spending was more a way of appeasing the neo-cons and trying to buy the MI-complex for the republicans. It worked.
jay niemeyer  Monday, November 05, 2012 12:20 pm
Matt, could you point me to a reliable source that the Reagan administration - or any other Western entity for that matter - knew that economic/political collapse was inevitable apart from Reagan/Thatcher sort of policies?
dave matre  Monday, November 05, 2012 6:40 am
I draw a distinction between limited and smaller government, with the preference being limited to those things with constitutional authority. If I recall, the spending that Clinton cut was largely military. Some of Bush's spending was re-building, particularly after 9/11. This is not a defense of Bush spending, which was disappointing, but rather a clarification.