The presidential election, of course, has the capacity to be a disaster on wheels, either way it goes. But let me sketch a quick scenario in which it could be a good thing — either way.
One of my assumptions in this thought experiment is that in the gubernatorial races, in the Senate races, and in the House races, it is going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats. There are various good reasons for supposing this but, I hasten to add, we don’t know for sure. Sometime soon I will go into my reasons for thinking this likely, but for now my happy thought experiment scenario either way depends upon it.
If this happens, and Obama is re-elected, then it will not at all be like his first two years in office, when he had control of the Congress, and a mandate “to do something.” In this scenario, he would be hog-tied. He would be limited to saying silly things instead of doing silly things. If Obama were president, and the Congress were a bunch of Picts with blue face paint on, resolved that nothing whatever was going to happen to their left, then we could have ourselves some greatly-to-be-desired gridlock. Everybody assumes that we want government to work, but I don’t. I want government to quit it. A principled scaling-back would be wonderful, but gridlock could do in a pinch.
The challenge in this regard will be tougher if Romney is elected because it will be easier for everyone to assume that he has a mandate to govern (to “get things done”), and all of his instincts, and those of his advisers, will want to draw them to the center. They will think that bipartisanship is a good thing, and the standard mainstream Republican ploy will come out — run to the right, and govern to the center.
If the new Republican majorities in both houses believe that Romney is supposed to lead them, then we will be in far worse shape than if Obama were elected. If the conservatives in Congress agree to “take one for the team” as Santorum famously did for Bush, then the worst thing possible would be for a squish like Romney to be elected. If Congress would go farther left for Romney than they would for Obama, then why would we want that? Why should we work for that state of affairs?
But if the Republicans are adequately obstreperous, and every single move that Romney makes toward the center is treated as if he had just nominated Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, then lots of good things could happen. The majorities in Congress have to consider themselves to be a firewall against the Republican president. But Romney can lead as much as he wants in that other direction.
The issue is this. A Republican Congress will know that they must stop Obama from doing whatever he wants to do to the left. They have the identical responsibility for anything that Romney wants to do to the left. That will be harder for them to do, and it is the great danger of a Romney presidency. The reason I am hopeful is that the Tea Party revolt appears to be on a roll, most recently with the Cruz victory in Texas. What we need to counter-act our establishment candidate at the top of the ticket is a bunch of non-establishment candidates down below. So far, that appears to be what is shaping up, at least as a possibility.