Banner
Up With People With Calculators PDF Print E-mail
Culture and Politics - Politics
Written by Douglas Wilson   
Wednesday, 06 June 2012 06:12

The vote in Wisconsin last night was heartening, on a number of levels.

First, I was gratified that the very first thing Scott Walker did was give glory to God for His abundant grace. Cynics can dismiss that sort of thing as campaign boiler plate, but in the Bible, it remains a big deal. It is important to do. He also made a point of mentioning how he and his family were sustained by the prayers of many people.

Second, it happened in Wisconsin, for crying out loud. Wisconsin is not just the dairy state, it is the labor union state. Shoot, the cows are the largest public sector union they have. For this successful reining in of big labor union goonery to have occurred in Wisconsin is remarkable, and it has to be troubling for the Left. And "troubling" is a wild understatement word choice.

Third, it illustrated, yet again, that polls (and particularly exit polls) are not a neutral diagnostic tool that anyone can just use, but are routinely picked up as partisan weapons and tools. Those who want to prognosticate about November, therefore, would do far better to look at historical trends (unemployment rates and reelections, say) than at the week-to-week polling. There are two main reasons for this. First, the media on the left is Obama's kept woman, and will not be publishing polls that tell the president that he might as well pack it in now. Secondly, the media generally is in the business of attracting readers and viewers, and so they want every election to be a cliffhanger -- they have built-in economic incentives to play it that way right up to the end. If we knew beforehand that one of the Super Bowl teams was going to be ahead by 40 or so at the half, how do you thing advertising sales for the second half would go?

And last, the contrast with Europe is striking. The French just elected a socialist, veering left in their distress. This is like electing a new president of your AA chapter, and when you head off to give him the news, you find him down at Mingles with a schooner of beer. Growth or austerity? Growth or austerity? Rephrase that -- drunk or sober? Mobs in places like Greece are demanding more of all their troubles. The popular revolts over the water are insisting on a continuation of the hair of the dog that bit them. But here, at least in this moment in our history, the really effective grass roots activism is proving to be of the tea party variety, and the occupy variety has been left to their circle drumming, keeping the beat and bad company. The occupy forces have been our attempt at the European reaction, and despite support from all the predictable places, the whole operation has been pathetic. And on the other side, with the notable exception of the nomination of Romney, a host of local elections have been giving us reasons for some kind of bracing optimism. Yesterday, a couple of California cities passed pension reform.

We may be seeing the formation of a new political alignment -- in lieu of the old labels, the next set of elections might come down to PWC (people with calculators) and PWOC (and people without calculators).



Add this page to your favorite Social Networking websites
Digg! Reddit! Del.icio.us! Mixx! Google! Live! Facebook! StumbleUpon! MySpace! Yahoo! BlogRolling! Twitter! LinkedIn! TwitThis
 
Comments
Search
Only registered users can write comments!
The Scylding  Wednesday, June 06, 2012 6:54 am
Doug, you can have growth with austerity, if you do it right.

For a good perspective, see PM Harper's interview with the CBC last night. The Globe and Mail has a full transcript - I would seriously encourage you and everybody that comes here to read it:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/full-transcript-of-prime-minister-stephen-harpers-interview-with-the-cbcs-peter-mansbridge/article4234070/
Brian J Alldredge  Wednesday, June 06, 2012 7:22 am
Sign me up for the PWC party!
Rob Steele  Wednesday, June 06, 2012 7:42 am
San Diego and San Jose do not a California make, alas. Let's hope it spreads.
Paul  Wednesday, June 06, 2012 8:24 am
Before we get too excited. The pension reform measures most likely violate state labor law and will be thrown out.

Also San Diego passed pension reform but then selected a homosexual and a Democrat to have a runoff in November.
Michael Bull  - Still the Keynesian vehicle  Wednesday, June 06, 2012 1:53 pm
Good news. What happens in USA affects everybody eventually.

Have been reading David P. Goldman's recent books. His take on austerity is that it is only going to make things worse. It's still the Keynesian vehicle, just thrown into reverse. The long term solution is to encourage entrepreneurs and innovation.
Simon  - Drunk vs. Sensible, more like it  Wednesday, June 06, 2012 4:12 pm
Great news! As Europe descends into economic chaos (read 'suicide'), it's a relief that some people are willing to do the math. I'm looking forward to the small-government-bug being imported to Australia, even if it has to come via an American tourist's hiking book. God knows we need it soon.
Melody  Thursday, June 07, 2012 5:41 am
Pastor Doug, You will be pleased to note that out here in California, I voted for Ron Paul. I have never really been a supporter of his but because it really didn't matter who I voted for anyway I thought of you and voted for him. :)
Ensberg  Thursday, June 07, 2012 6:21 am
Everything Wilson says here is great except for the fact that week-to-week polls are way more accurate than he concedes. Sure, many pollsters may not be neutral, but that doesn't mean that they're wrong. Glance at election predictions from Wilson v. Real Clear Politics the last several years, and unfortunately the former smokes the latter at predictions. Obama, for instance, won easily and very consistently with the polls. They were remarkably accurate.
Ensberg  Thursday, June 07, 2012 6:22 am
Everything Wilson says here is great except for the fact that week-to-week polls are way more accurate than he concedes. Sure, many pollsters may not be neutral, but that doesn't mean that they're wrong. Glance at election predictions from Wilson v. Real Clear Politics the last several years, and unfortunately the RCP smokes Wilson at predictions. Obama, for instance, won easily and very consistently with the polls. They were remarkably accurate.
Matt Weber  Thursday, June 07, 2012 7:20 am
That's true, but Doug is also right that the media wants a horse race to gin up ratings. I didn't know anyone as confident as Doug that McCain would beat Obama, but most people at least thought it was possible. Part of this has nothing to do with polls, and rather with the fact that a good 30% or so of the electorate--the part that decides the election, are 'undecided voters' who make a last minute decision based on some kind of arcane political calculus that only they understand. In '08, they broke for Obama.

Quote:
We may be seeing the formation of a new political alignment -- in lieu of the old labels, the next set of elections might come down to PWC (people with calculators) and PWOC (and people without calculators).


Maybe, maybe not. It's at least as likely that it will come down to POC (People of Color) vs. PWC (People Without Color). Check the Pew values survey sometime...Blacks and Hispanics are far more positive about the government than whites are. The Republicans have almost no presence among nonwhites, and the clock is ticking on the white majority.
Matt Weber  Thursday, June 07, 2012 7:26 am
I should add that up until Lehman Brothers, it was feasible that McCain would beat Obama. After Lehman, the Republicans were finished.
Ensberg  Thursday, June 07, 2012 1:18 pm
Wilson predicted a McCain victory even AFTER Lehman.
Tammy Burns  Saturday, June 09, 2012 1:58 pm
the calculations are 99.9% and the .1%